The Bihar assembly elections in 2025 have sparked significant discussions around the potential outcome, particularly following multiple exit polls indicating a likely victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Leading figures in the NDA, including Bihar Minister Ashok Chaudhary and Union Minister Nityanand Rai, have expressed strong confidence in the coalition's ability to secure the next government, dismissing the potential impact of anti-incumbency sentiments. Chaudhary emphasized that voters aimed to prevent what he described as 'Jungle Raaj 2' associated with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Similarly, Rai highlighted the evident public approval for both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's leadership, asserting that the NDA might win even more seats than currently projected.
Multiple representatives from the NDA, such as BJP MP Jagadambika Pal and former Deputy CM Tarkishore Prasad, have reiterated their belief in a strong voter turnout and the coalition’s developmental agenda as indicators of success in the elections. Prasad noted that the transformation of Bihar under Nitish Kumar since 2005 has been a significant factor influencing voter support.
Conversely, leaders from the opposition, including Congress and the Mahagathbandhan, express skepticism towards the exit polls. Congress MP Tariq Anwar cautioned against relying on the accuracy of exit polls, labeling them as speculative. Other opposition figures, like SP MP Awadhesh Prasad and Congress MLA Ajeet Sharma, have asserted that the exit polls do not reflect the true sentiments of the voters, insisting that the Mahagathbandhan is poised to take over the government.
The assembly elections have witnessed a notable voter engagement, with the Election Commission of India reporting nearly 67% turnout across two phases, surpassing the previous assembly elections by 9.6%. The turnout had significant gender disparities, with women showing higher rates of participation compared to men, marking a shift in electoral dynamics. Women made up 71.6% of voters while men accounted for 62.8%. The elections were contested across 122 assembly seats with over 1,300 candidates participating.
As Bihar awaits the final results, the exit polls have ignited a fierce political discourse, highlighting both optimism within the NDA and an unwavering conviction among opposition parties that could signal a competitive electoral landscape. With the stakes high, the next few days will determine whether the projections hold true or if the ground realities defy the predictions.