Recent exit polls predict a significant victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Bihar elections, reflecting a potential shift in the state's political dynamics. The polling, which occurred in two phases on November 6 and 11, reported high voter turnout, further underscoring the public's engagement in the electoral process. Estimates suggest that the NDA is on track to secure around 148 seats, while the opposition coalition, the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, is anticipated to fall short with approximately 88 seats.
The NDA, consisting of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)), and other regional parties, is positioned to strengthen its hold on Bihar. In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan, which also includes opposition parties like the Congress and CPI, has struggled to inspire enthusiasm among voters. Notably, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj party is projected to perform poorly, potentially failing to win significant representation.
Exit poll variances show the NDA estimates ranging on various scales, with some polls suggesting they could win between 133 to 167 seats. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan’s projected seat count varies from 70 to 103 seats depending on the source. Other minor parties are expected to secure a handful of seats, indicating a fragmented performance among alternatives to the main alliances.
Regarding voter turnout, Bihar saw a reported 68.52% participation in the second phase of elections, which includes noteworthy districts such as Kishanganj and Katihar, reporting the highest at above 75%. The first phase achieved a 65.08% turnout, reflecting significant public interest in the elections.
The landscape of this electoral battle is complicated by the historical context; in the previous election held in 2020, the NDA gained 125 seats while the Mahagathbandhan secured 110 seats. As parties prepare for the official counting of votes, the exit polls serve as a preliminary indication of the electorate’s sentiments but also highlight the potential unpredictability of final results. The ongoing developments will determine whether the anticipated outcomes will materialize or if voters will deliver unexpected results.